Annie Duke

Quotes are word for word from the source.

• Goals vs expected value

  “I think that we confuse the two things - that we're allowed to set really high goals and believe that we will reach them, and at the exact same time, we can be thinking in expected value”

  Our noteAnnie discusses how high aspirations and probabilistic thinking can coexist in the same mental space.

• Anticipating Failure

  “how can you be a good decision maker if you're not really thinking about the negative outcomes that could occur? And then trying to get out in front of those in a variety of ways, one of which might be to hedge.”

  Our noteAnnie argues that good decision-making requires planning for negative scenarios.

• Proactive Success

  “you're more likely to have success if you can think about what those routes are and actually get out in front of them.”

  Our noteAnnie explains that imagining failure is a tool for success, not a cause of failure.

• Focus on process

  “The way to happiness is to focus on process. Then the winning becomes secondary to that. It becomes a way to keep score on how you're doing on the process piece.”

  Our noteAnnie explains how shifting focus from results to process leads to better mental health and performance.

• Avoiding decision traps

  “it really exposes you to the way that you're thinking, and in a real way, how hard it is to avoid decision traps, even when you're perfectly well aware that those decision traps exist.”

  Our noteAnnie discusses how poker serves as a laboratory for observing one's own cognitive biases.

• Self-serving bias

  “we tend to attribute good things to our own skill, and we tend to attribute bad things that happen to us to luck.”

  Our noteAnnie describes the common human tendency to misattribute the causes of success and failure.

• Domain specific skill

  “one of the things that poker teaches you is that you shouldn't assume that just because people are really skillful in one domain that that's going to transfer.”

  Our noteAnnie warns against assuming that expertise in one area automatically translates to others.

• Winning despite uncertainty

  “how do I actually get myself into a position where I can actually win despite the uncertainty and despite my own frailties of mind?”

  Our noteAnnie reflects on the constant challenge of making good decisions in complex, uncertain systems.

• Using extra information

  “tells can come in handy because they're extra information that can allow you to tip over onto one side or the other of your decision.”

  Our noteAnnie discusses how physical tells help in close decision-making scenarios.

• Probabilistic thinking

  “I think that if you have the ability to think probabilistically, I would say that that's number one is that you really, really have to understand that”

  Our noteAnnie discusses the primary requirement for becoming a great poker player.